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68
218
forecasters
17
68 comments
218 forecasters
Politics
1 more...
Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?
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Trump pardons politically violent offenders?
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≥10 US president-affiliated people to get a pardon/commutation in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
Yes
2025-2026
result:
Yes
2027-2028
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Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?
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People pardoned by noon (EST) Jan 20, 2029?
Sam Bankman-Fried
15%
Elizabeth Holmes
20%
Larry Householder
42%
John Kiriakou
10%
2 others
1 comment
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?
50%
chance
6 comments
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Will DOJ leaders deviate to protect the President or his allies in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
61%
2027-2028
69%
207 comments
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Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
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Trump in power beyond 2028?
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