• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
29 comments
169 forecasters

Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?

99%chance
99%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
t_adamczewski
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:Jun 9, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020
Law
Politics
🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard
FOX News logo
How James Comey's indictment could go south for the DOJ
FOX News•Oct 2, 2025
Guardian logo
Trump pressure tactics in Comey case ‘chilling’ – but they could backfire, experts say
Guardian•Sep 30, 2025
Independent logo
JD Vance says ‘certainly gonna be more indictments’ coming against Trump enemies over rest of president’s term
Independent•Sep 29, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

1% chance
803

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

24 Aug 2029
(27 Jul 2027 - 16 Nov 2029)
24 Aug 2029
(27 Jul 2027 - 16 Nov 2029)
19 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

8% chance
159
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature