Question

Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?

Resolved:Yes

29 comments29

Total Forecasters169

Community Prediction

99%

(93% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

5.1

Community Baseline Score

-19.3

Authors:

t_adamczewski

Opened:

Nov 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 15, 2020

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Emotionally damaged Trump is a born loser

AlterNet•Sep 2, 2025

Judge charged with immigration obstruction loses immunity bid that cited Trump’s case

MSNBC•Aug 28, 2025

Trump's reckoning may be right around the corner — here's why

AlterNet•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

17 Oct 2029

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

10%

Authors:

t_adamczewski

Opened:

Nov 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 15, 2020

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Emotionally damaged Trump is a born loser

AlterNet•Sep 2, 2025

Judge charged with immigration obstruction loses immunity bid that cited Trump’s case

MSNBC•Aug 28, 2025

Trump's reckoning may be right around the corner — here's why

AlterNet•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

17 Oct 2029

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

10%