Question
When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction
09 Jan 2025
(23 Dec 2023 - 11 Feb 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 23 Dec 2023 | — |
| median | 09 Jan 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Feb 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 Dec 2029 | 9.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020