6 comments
34 forecasters
When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
Current estimate
04 Nov 2024
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?
82% chance
28
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
0.1% chance
61
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
75% chance
49