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Will (some of) China's space station land on land?

Since September 2016, Chinese space officials have known that their space station, Tiangong 1, was going to crash into earth, its orbit not-so-slowly decaying. The station, which has been in orbit since 2011, could burn up in the Earth's atmosphere any time between now and April 2018. The time and location of the station's return to Earth is unknown.

It's also unknown how much material will survive re-entry and will land somewhere on Earth. When possible, space agencies direct re-entering spacecraft to an oceanic "graveyard" where they can splash down safely. But because Tiangong 1's re-entry is uncontrolled, it's possible that chunks weighing up to 200 pounds could land anywhere on Earth. With around 29% of the planet's surface as land, chances are small (though non-zero) that a sizable piece of debris could cause damage in inhabited areas.

Will significant pieces of Tiangong 1 touch down on land?

This question will resolve as positive if, following the confirmed atmospheric destruction of the Tiangong 1 space station and prior to June 1, 2019, a piece of debris confirmed to belong to the station and massing > 1 kg is found as having impacted originally on land, according to credible news or governmental reports.

(Edit 11/3/17 to add cutoff date for finding the piece.)


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