predicting probable understanding calculating probable predictions predicting definitive futures delivering contingent contingencies delivering contingent forecasts mapping the future delivering quantitative forecasts delivering intelligent insights composing contingent predictions generating definitive futures delivering probable insights exploring probable estimations assembling contingent contingencies predicting probable forecasts

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will (some of) China's space station land on land?

Since September 2016, Chinese space officials have known that their space station, Tiangong 1, was going to crash into earth, its orbit not-so-slowly decaying. The station, which has been in orbit since 2011, could burn up in the Earth's atmosphere any time between now and April 2018. The time and location of the station's return to Earth is unknown.

It's also unknown how much material will survive re-entry and will land somewhere on Earth. When possible, space agencies direct re-entering spacecraft to an oceanic "graveyard" where they can splash down safely. But because Tiangong 1's re-entry is uncontrolled, it's possible that chunks weighing up to 200 pounds could land anywhere on Earth. With around 29% of the planet's surface as land, chances are small (though non-zero) that a sizable piece of debris could cause damage in inhabited areas.

Will significant pieces of Tiangong 1 touch down on land?

This question will resolve as positive if, following the confirmed atmospheric destruction of the Tiangong 1 space station and prior to June 1, 2019, a piece of debris confirmed to belong to the station and massing > 1 kg is found as having impacted originally on land, according to credible news or governmental reports.

(Edit 11/3/17 to add cutoff date for finding the piece.)

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.