187 forecasters

Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?

5%chance

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 17, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2021

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2020