Question

When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?

Resolved:11 Dec 2020 04:00

24 comments24

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction

16 Dec 2020 06:46

(12 Dec 2020 14:22 - 21 Dec 2020)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>14 Jan 2021
community	12 Dec 2020 14:22	16 Dec 2020 06:46	21 Dec 2020	3.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	12 Dec 2020 14:22	—
median	16 Dec 2020 06:46	—
upper 75%	21 Dec 2020	—
Upper bound
>14 Jan 2021	3.8%	—

What was the final result?11 Dec 2020 04:00

Community Baseline Score

87.2

Community Peer Score

22.3

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 19, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2020

Resolves:

Dec 12, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2020

Health & Pandemics

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04 Aug 2026

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 19, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2020

Resolves:

Dec 12, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?

Dec 2032

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

04 Aug 2026