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UK second wave deadlier than first?


The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave. A second question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks almost certain to resolve positively in the next few days.

The UK government has implemented a month-long national lockdown, in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse.

During the first wave, daily deaths peaked at just over 900 deaths/day. This question asks:

Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day by the end of the second wave?

This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 7000.

The second wave will be determined to have ended if the 7-day moving average of deaths falls below 100 deaths/day for 14 consecutive days.

If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.

Data updates meaning that more than 3000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).

This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. This is a departure from the time of retroactive closing in the previous two questions, as it became apparent that the best strategy was to predict >7 days into the future, even if the most likely outcome was resolution before then.

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