103 comments

190 forecasters

Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?

51%chance

51%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 51% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 22, 2020

Closes:

Jun 30, 2021

Resolved:

Jul 7, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2020

Health & Pandemics

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