103 comments
190 forecasters
Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
51%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 51% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2020
Closes:Jun 30, 2021
Resolved:Jul 7, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 23, 2020