Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

83 forecasters

4

83 forecasters

Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?

community

4.93

result

5

Resolved5

Forecast Timeline

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

4 comments59 forecasters

Kwasi Kwarteng Tory Leader before 2030

23 comments96 forecasters

Conservative UK PM on Jan 1, 2030

21 comments63 forecasters

Tom Tugendhat Top Tory before 2030?

15 comments74 forecasters

UK Labour to have female leader before 2030?

44 comments66 forecasters

Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election

Andy Burnham34%

Angela Rayner19%

Wes Streeting10%

11 comments111 forecasters

Labour UK PM on January 1, 2030

20 comments49 forecasters

Nigel Farage UK PM before Jan 1 2035?

1 comment9 forecasters

Next UK general election, up to 2030

Current estimate