FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Next Conservative Leader (UK)

    Created by SimonM on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by SimonM on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.

    Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?

    The question will resolve:

    1. Rishi Sunak
    2. Michael Gove
    3. Jeremy Hunt
    4. Priti Patel
    5. None of the above

    The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.

    If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

    Categories:
    Politics – European

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.