22 comments
65 forecasters
When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
Current estimate
Oct 2032
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 25, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 26, 2020
Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
2% chance
192
When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?
56% chance
163
When will a referendum on Quebec independence take place?
01 Sep 2028
(06 Dec 2027 - Jan 2033)
01 Sep 2028
(06 Dec 2027 - Jan 2033)
7 forecasters