Question

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

364 comments364

Total Forecasters1583

Community Prediction

0.3%

(0.1% - 4%)

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50%

community: 0.3%

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Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 12, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 13, 2017

Technology

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

May 2044

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 12, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 13, 2017

Technology

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

May 2044