Question
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
Total Forecasters1706
Community Prediction
1%
(0.1% - 8%)
Make a Prediction
Authors:
Opened:Nov 12, 2017
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2017
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
29%
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Jul 2046
Authors:
Opened:Nov 12, 2017
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2017
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
29%
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Jul 2046