Authors:
Opened:Nov 12, 2017
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2017
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33% chance
413
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
22% chance
44
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Feb 2046
(May 2033 - 2086)
Feb 2046
(May 2033 - 2086)
71 forecasters