Question
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
Total Forecasters1662
Community Prediction
0.3%
(0.1% - 5%)
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 12, 2017
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2017
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
21%
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Jun 2044
Authors:
Opened:Nov 12, 2017
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2017
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
21%
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Jun 2044