Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

2022 US House Midterm Election

Question

Related questions on Metaculus:


In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.

If Republicans win 218 seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house.

435 seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.

Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?

This question will resolve as Yes if Republicans^ win more than 50% of seats in the US House following the 2022 elections. If Democrats^ win more than 50% of seats, this question will resolve as No. If neither of these parties win more than 50% seats (e.g. an unaligned third party wins seats), then this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.