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84 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
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15 comments
41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
4 comments
53 forecasters
US govt maintain list of AI safety incidents by 2030?
33%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
4 comments
24 forecasters
Fields Medalists Trying AI Safety
2036
49.9%
2030
21%
2026
result:
No
1 comment
11 forecasters
Share of AI Publications from China
Current estimate
48.2%
3 comments
51 forecasters
AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?
11%
chance