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Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?

The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.

Also potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.

To measure democracy, we will use the Democracy Index from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.

On the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:

8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy

6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy

4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime

0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime

More information can also be found on Wikipedia.

The 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.

It is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?

Should the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.


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