Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
1
60
forecasters
7
1 comment
60 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
3 more...
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
Follow
share
embed
community
1748
result
1590
Resolved
1590
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (1)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
26 comments
739 forecasters
Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?
Current estimate
92.9
11 comments
172 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
8 comments
57 forecasters
Highest score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on Jan 1, 2028?
Current estimate
42.6%
16 comments
66 forecasters
AI Rapidly Learns Montezuma's Revenge
Current estimate
26 Mar 2027
8 comments
30 forecasters
Highest GPQA Diamond Score 2024 to 2027
20 comments
723 forecasters
Top bot vs top 5 humans in ACX 2026?
Current estimate
91.2%
0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published