Question

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

Resolved :1.59k

1 comment1

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction

1.75k

(1.52k - 2.03k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<1.3k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3.5k
community	14.3%	1.518k	1.748k	2.031k	2.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1.3k	14.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.518k	—
median	1.748k	—
upper 75%	2.031k	—
Upper bound
>3.5k	2.3%	—

What was the final result?1.59k

Community Baseline Score

31.5

Community Peer Score

31.5

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 14, 2020

Closes:

Feb 13, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2020

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

ArXiv

Machine learning

DQN

Reinforcement learning

Q-learning

Temporal difference learning

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Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

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