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May 2021 production of semiconductors

Question

This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament. You can view all other questions in this round here.


Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [1]. The printed circuit board is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.

What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?

This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other for May 2021.

The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.

The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.

In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.

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