📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?

Resolved :No2%
10
4
Total Forecasters91
Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
81.4
Community Peer Score
13.3
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economist 2021
Law
Politics
Health & Pandemics
Economy & Business
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Constitutional challenges to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
Medicare (United States)
Public health insurance option
President of the US
US Congress
Joe Biden

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