Question

Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?

Resolved:No

41 comments41

Total Forecasters167

Community Prediction

10%

(6% - 17%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

30.7

Community Peer Score

22.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 12, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2020

Economist 2021

Politics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Aug 2032

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

55%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 12, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2020

Economist 2021

Politics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Aug 2032

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

55%