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38 comments
63 forecasters

If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?

Latest estimate
2.97
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
AngraMainyu
Opened:May 9, 2020
Closed:Jun 30, 2022
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:May 10, 2020
Economy & Business
Natural Sciences
Technology
Space
2016-2025 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

Europa
36%
Mars
35%
Enceladus
10%
7 others
108 forecasters

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

28% chance
288

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22% chance
1.6k
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