🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?

Resolved :961k892k
6
27
Total Forecasters53
Community Prediction892k (823k - 970k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.5M
...
...
...
...
822.8k
892.1k
970.1k
0.6%

What was the final result?961k

Community Baseline Score
7.3
Community Peer Score
30.1
Authors:
ethulin
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
Demography
Public health
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Mortality displacement
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology

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