4 comments
23 forecasters
What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it on January 1, 2025?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Feb 18, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 24, 2020
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79% chance
90
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
39.6 users
(33 - 44.6)
39.6 users
(33 - 44.6)
18 forecasters
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85% chance
30