Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Vaccine update due to mutation?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below.
In Early November 2020, a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming. This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock.
On 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a briefing on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new set of national restrictions, including a "Tier 4" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period.
It is at least in principle possible that a mutation to SARS-COV-2 could reduce the efficacy of current vaccines.
This question asks:
Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
This question resolves positively if and only if there is a credible media report before 2023 that Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech, University of Oxford, or AstraZeneca have produced at least one dose of an updated vaccine targeting SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). The report must mention that one reason for the update was a mutation. The dose does not have to be administered, and no trials need to be planned.
The report can mention more than one reason for updating the vaccine, as long as one of those reasons is a mutation.
The vaccine does not need to be approved before the resolution date.
Some of these vaccines were developed in a partnership between two companies. The updated vaccine doesn’t need to be part of the same partnership. For example, if AstraZeneca starts working on an updated vaccine independently, that is sufficient for positive resolution.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.