11 comments
62 forecasters
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2021
Resolved:Jan 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2021
When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
25 Jul 2028
(18 Apr 2025 - >31 Dec 2029)
25 Jul 2028
(18 Apr 2025 - >31 Dec 2029)
15 forecasters
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32% chance
40
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85% chance
30