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Donations Influenced by ACE


Animal Charity Evaluators is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty.

On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to "doing the most good" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered counter-cyclical donation schedules (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.

How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?

This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own financials page, which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.

If the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.

This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.

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