124 comments
583 forecasters
How much global warming by 2100?
Current estimate
3.14 °C
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 21, 2017
Closes:Jan 1, 2101
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2101
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 23, 2017
Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?
97% chance
549
When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?
Oct 2043
(Mar 2036 - Oct 2055)
Oct 2043
(Mar 2036 - Oct 2055)
138 forecasters
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?
20% chance
143