🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?

Resolved :2122
4
5
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction22 (20.6 - 23.3)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>40
...
...
...
...
20.62
22.01
23.32
0.2%

What was the final result?21

Community Baseline Score
90.1
Community Peer Score
-1.4
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2021 Leaderboard
Economist Intelligence Unit
Democracy Index
The Economist
Wikipedia
Norway
North Korea

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