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UK Covid herd immunity (53.3m) date


Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of ~95% and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of 62%-90%, depending on the dosing schedule.

Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Current research suggests that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%.

However, recent evidence indicates that a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK, which could raise the herd immunity threshold.

When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?

This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.

2 August clarification: This question will resolve as the date when a credible media report stating that the >53.3m immunity threshold has been reached is published, rather than the date when this threshold is reached.

Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity.

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