🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?

Resolved :55.259.4
6
13
Total Forecasters55
Community Prediction59.4 (53.2 - 63)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<33
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>66
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
53.22
59.44
63.02
12.3%

What was the final result?55.2

Community Baseline Score
18.0
Community Peer Score
13.0
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2021 Leaderboard
2021 London mayoral election
Mayor of London
2021 London Assembly election
Contingent vote
Labour Party (UK)
Sadiq Khan
London mayoral elections

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