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Date of 1 Billion Americans

Question

One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger is a book by Matthew Yglesias, first published in 2020.

One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.

As of January 2021, the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.

You can view historical US population data since 1935 here.

When will there be at least one billion Americans?

This question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.

If the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as "After January 1, 2121."

If no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.

This question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.

Emulated people shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency.

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