Question

What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021

Resolved:61.2409k

8 comments8

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction

61.4k

(60.1k - 62.8k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>400k
community	60.07k	61.36k	62.79k	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	60.07k	—
median	61.36k	—
upper 75%	62.79k	—
Upper bound
>400k	0.4%	—

What was the final result?61.2409k

Community Baseline Score

126.6

Community Peer Score

72.8

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 4, 2021

Closes:

Mar 31, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 7, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 4, 2021

Closes:

Mar 31, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 7, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%