📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

Question

What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021

Resolved :61.2k61.4k

11

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction61.4k (60.1k - 62.8k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>400k

...

...

...

...

60.07k

61.36k

62.79k

0.4%

What was the final result?61.2k

Community Baseline Score

126.6

Community Peer Score

72.8

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard