Question

Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?

Resolved:Yes

32 comments32

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction

99%

(94% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

62.4

Community Peer Score

12.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Feb 19, 2021

Closes:

Jul 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2021

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021 Leaderboard

JPMorgan lays out a worst-case scenario for Israel-Iran that could send oil prices spiking 75%

Business Insider•Jun 23, 2025

Oil Price To $150?

Forbes•Jun 23, 2025

Bitcoin, Oil Price Analysis: BTC Holds Key Support; Oil Disappoints 'Doomers' as Brent and WTI Erase Early Price Gains

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?

50%

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Feb 19, 2021

Closes:

Jul 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2021

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021 Leaderboard

JPMorgan lays out a worst-case scenario for Israel-Iran that could send oil prices spiking 75%

Business Insider•Jun 23, 2025

Oil Price To $150?

Forbes•Jun 23, 2025

Bitcoin, Oil Price Analysis: BTC Holds Key Support; Oil Disappoints 'Doomers' as Brent and WTI Erase Early Price Gains

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?

50%

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%