📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?

Resolved :121124
3
4
Total Forecasters39
Community Prediction124 (121 - 128)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>140
...
...
...
...
120.8
124
127.6
1.0%

What was the final result?121

Community Baseline Score
25.2
Community Peer Score
19.3
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Technical Benchmarks
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021 Leaderboard
ImageNet
Database
History
Culture
Machine learning
Stanford University
Education
Aerospace engineering

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