📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

Question

What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?

Resolved :1.241.26

3

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction1.26 (1.14 - 1.38)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3

...

...

...

...

1.144

1.261

1.379

0.4%

What was the final result?1.24

Community Baseline Score

83.2

Community Peer Score

6.9

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2021 Leaderboard

Johns Hopkins University

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2021 Leaderboard

Johns Hopkins University