Question
What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
Resolved:827.869kTotal Forecasters38
Community Prediction
668k
(564k - 762k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 564k | — |
| median | 668.4k | — |
| upper 75% | 761.6k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1M | 2.4% | — |
What was the final result?827.869k
Community Baseline Score
2.2
Community Peer Score
33.6
Authors:
Opened:Jan 6, 2021
Closes:Jan 16, 2021
Resolves:Mar 22, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 8, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Jan 6, 2021
Closes:Jan 16, 2021
Resolves:Mar 22, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 8, 2021