📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?

Resolved :828k668k
5
10
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction668k (564k - 762k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1M
...
...
...
...
564k
668.4k
761.6k
2.4%

What was the final result?828k

Community Baseline Score
2.2
Community Peer Score
33.6
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
Virology
Public health
COVID-19
Pfizer
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Food and Drug Administration
Johns Hopkins University
Moderna

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