Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England

Question

On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that England would enter a third national lockdown.

The restrictions include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).

In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in "tier 1" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.

When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?

This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.

By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.

To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say "There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.