267 forecasters

Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 6, 2021

Closes:

Jan 15, 2021

Resolved:

Jan 20, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 6, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

If Donald Trump Was Incapacitated, Would We Know?

Mother Jones•Sep 10, 2025

'Like being in a gang': the Jan. 6 rioter who left MAGA and told Trump to shove his pardon

Raw Story•Sep 10, 2025

Crockett: Trump Not Physically or Mentally Capable of Finishing His Term

Breitbart•Sep 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch