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6 comments
53 forecasters

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

Latest estimate
49.9
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Jan 14, 2021
Closed:Mar 13, 2025
Scheduled resolution:May 31, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 16, 2021
Forecasting AI Progress
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Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2023
1.2×10¹⁸
2025
3×10¹⁸
2032
8.4×10¹⁹
2 others
69 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2023
5×10²⁵
2025
5.1×10²⁶
2032
3.1×10²⁹
2 others
90 forecasters

What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?

64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
3 forecasters
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