Question

When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?

Resolved:20 May 2021

30 comments30

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction

21 May 2021

(17 May 2021 - 29 May 2021 04:14)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>28 Dec 2021
community	17 May 2021	21 May 2021	29 May 2021 04:14	1.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	17 May 2021	—
median	21 May 2021	—
upper 75%	29 May 2021 04:14	—
Upper bound
>28 Dec 2021	1.1%	—

What was the final result?20 May 2021

Community Baseline Score

20.2

Community Peer Score

19.3

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Jan 14, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?

>22 Dec 2025

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Jan 14, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?

>22 Dec 2025

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%