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Large scale rioting in US in early 2021?

Question

Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.

More recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States in response to the killing of George Floyd. More than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be up to $2bn.

In January 2021, the United States Capitol Building was stormed by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?

For the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:

  • At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

  • At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.

For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.

Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.

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