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42 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
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How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
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8066
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8066
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7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B
1 comment
23 forecasters
AI to publish in a top scientific journal
Current estimate
12 Nov 2027
8 comments
37 forecasters
Development of Human-Level Language Models
Current estimate
18 Feb 2024
1 comment
17 forecasters
Question Answering on Long Texts by 2030
Current estimate
96.4%
3 comments
25 forecasters
Question Answering on Long Texts by 2040
Current estimate
99%
10 comments
11 forecasters
Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?
48%
chance