📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

Resolved :3.38k4.03k
2
4
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction4.03k (3.8k - 4.27k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
<2k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>6k
...
...
...
...
...
0.3%
3.805k
4.031k
4.269k
0.6%

What was the final result?3.38k

Community Baseline Score
-3.2
Community Peer Score
27.6
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021 Leaderboard
ArXiv
Machine learning
DQN
Reinforcement learning
Q-learning
Temporal difference learning

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