Forecast
Facebook Twitter
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • Leave Question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question draft.

    The author will submit it for review by Community Moderators when it's ready. Thanks for helping!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    No Trump Family Indictments in 2021

    Created by AnotherWorld on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by AnotherWorld {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}

    Question

    As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article, where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.

    As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.

    A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.

    Here are some articles describing these issues:

    Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?

    This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.

    This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.

    For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:

    • Donald Trump
    • Donald Trump Jr.
    • Eric Trump
    • Ivanka Trump
    • Tiffany Trump
    • Melania Trump
    • Barron Trump
    • Jared Kushner
    Categories:
    Law – Court Cases
    Politics – US
    Series – Future Perfect 2021

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.